Heavy rains could fall over much of Kenya between March and May, a regional weather centre has announced.
The Nairobi-based IGAD’S Climate Prediction and Applications Centre said most of Kenya is likely to receive above-normal rains, except the eastern strip along the Somalia border where rains will be normal.
Western Kenya has the highest chances of receiving more rain than is normal.
The rains will begin on March 15 along the Kenya-Tanzania border and in small parts around Lake Victoria.
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However, most of the country will receive the rains beginning the last week of March and the first week of April.
“Icpac also estimates that high temperatures could be recorded in most of Kenya,” the centre said in a statement.
The Dagoretti-based Icpac is a designated regional climate centre by the World Meteorological Organisation.
Its seasonal forecast is based on an analysis of several global climate model predictions customised for East Africa.
The March to May (MAM) season constitutes an important rainfall season for Kenya because it is the main crop planting season.
Icpac director, Guleid Artan said a wetter than normal season does not mean the region will immediately recover from the impacts of drought.
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“It is very important to note that global climate models have low skill in predicting the MAM season and stakeholders should prepare for the worst,” he said.
However, the expected wetter than average conditions will likely increase water availability over eastern Kenya and northern Somalia during the March to May 2022 season, Icpac said.
The forecast was prepared during the 60th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF60) convened on February 15-17 by Icpac.
However, the meteorological department has warned Kenyans not to immediately make decisions based on the Icpac update because it is too general and needs to be customised.
Met officers in Nairobi are currently meeting to analyse the Icpac update and formulate a three-month seasonal update.
It will be released through the media on Tuesday next week.
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